![]() This dissertation proposes to investigate when and why hindsight bias fails to appear, and what it means for the psychological processes underlying the hindsight bias, and more broadly, the interpretation of older psychological research. However, we must interpret older results in the behavioral sciences with new perspective on the importance of sample size and statistical power (Ioannidis, 2005). Hindsight bias is a thought pattern that convinces you that youve known a certain outcome all along. Multiple failures to debias, with methods including informing participants about the bias (Fischhoff, 1977) and manipulating participant perspective (Wood, 1978) further grew the reputation for the strength of this bias. The term hindsight bias describes the observation that people are often wise only after the event (Pennington, 1981). Researchers have found people fall victim to hindsight biases in a variety of domains, including general knowledge (Fischoff, 1977 Wood, 1978), medical decisions (Arkes, Wortmann, Saville, & Harkness, 1981), and political outcomes (Fischhoff & Beyth, 1975). ![]() Also known as the “knew-it-all-along effect” (Fischhoff, 1975) the hindsight bias refers to the inability for individuals to remember their previous state of knowledge after learning an outcome. Hindsight bias is a cognitive bias involving a tendency to overestimate one’s ability to have predicted an outcome or result that could not have been predicted before the event took place. The hindsight bias may not be as robust as previously believed. Description Hindsight bias and outcome bias sound similar but they are different concepts.
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